The project employs global land system models to predict and analyze the spillover effects of implementing global biodiversity targets under the Convention on Biological Diversity's Global Biodiversity Framework (CBD GBF).  

A spillover effect can occur, for example, when a government aims to protect a forest to conserve wildlife and plants, as envisioned by Target 5 of the Global Biodiversity Framework. To achieve this, the forest is designated as a protected area where activities like farming and logging are prohibited. This has a positive effect on habitat restoration and biodiversity within the protected area. However, local land-dependent communities, such as farmers and loggers, still need to earn a living. Unable to work within the protected zone, they may shift their activities to nearby, unprotected land. As a result, deforestation and land clearing may increase elsewhere, sometimes even at a greater scale than before. 

The models used in this project integrate data on land use, biodiversity, and human activities to simulate unintended outcomes, such as land-use shifts that may impact regions far from where the policy was implemented. By combining species distribution models with land-use scenarios, the project evaluates trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and the needs of land-dependent communities, offering insights into the telecoupled impacts of international policies.

A complementary case study in the Wyss Academy Solutionscape in Madre de Dios, Peru, captures local perspectives on the unintended consequences of biodiversity conservation efforts. Through participatory mapping and stakeholder discussions, the study explores how global biodiversity policies manifest at the local level, adding context-specific insight to the broader assessment. This integrated approach bridges global modeling and local realities, providing actionable recommendations to reduce spillover effects and support sustainable, inclusive governance. Outputs include peer-reviewed articles, policy briefs, and workshops to guide effective policymaking.